Harvest of coarse grains advances firmly in Argentina
With the absence of rains, the SB harvest reached 76% of the total area, above the 2020/21 cycle. In the same manner, maize harvest maintains a slightly lower rate than in recent campaigns, although in absolute terms, the planted area is a historical maximum.
The threshing of the main oilseed produced in Argentina has been intense in the last 6 weeks. The lack of generalized relevant rains in recent weeks has facilitated the rapid progress of work, although it is beginning to cause concern in the face of winter planting. In this sense, according to the data collected by the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, and Fisheries (MAGyP), as of May 12th, 76% of the area destined for sowing in the 2021/22 campaign has been harvested, when at the beginning of April, we saw progress of 9%, which also exceeded the last 5-campaign average, of 72.2%. However, it should be noted that in absolute terms the progress of the current harvest is below past cycles, compared to the fall in the area dedicated to SB.
For its part, maize harvest has also been registering a good pace in relation to recent campaigns, although it remains below maximum levels. In this sense, up to May 5th there was a 41% progress, while in the 2020/21 cycle the figures showed 36% of the surveyed surface. However, as the average harvest of the last 5 campaigns was 43.4%, this is why it translates to just a slight delay of 1.4 percent.
Despite not being the highest percentage harvest progress, it should be noted that due to the increase that has occurred in recent years in the area destined for corn, this rate results in the largest area raised to date. Indeed, the 4.22 Mil Ha that have been harvested up to May 13th is 25.3% higher than last year’s records, while the increase compared to the average of the last 5 years is 19.6 %. At the same time, this figure reflects the importance that maize has acquired in recent years if the area harvested to date in this campaign is compared with the first cycles of the 2010 decade.
While the 2021/22 coarse grain harvest is underway in Argentina, the 2022/23 maize has already begun to be sown, showing slow work progress. In fact, in the monthly report of estimates that the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) presented this Thursday, the projection of US production for the new campaign was 367.3 Mil MT, which is 16.6 Mil MT below the previous campaign. However, it must be taken into account that this figure still represents a production level in accordance with the performance of the last campaigns, since the average of the previous 5 years is 364.7 Mil MT. In other words, the maize campaign that today is currently being planted in the US, if the estimate materializes, it would be 0.7% above the average of recent years.
Meanwhile, SB production is expected to make a strong recovery after the production loss that occurred around the globe during the 2021/22 cycle. Although the production decrease estimated by the USDA is 5% between the 2020/21 and 2021/22 campaigns (368.1 Mil MT vs. 349.4 Mil MT), for the 2022/23 period it is expected that the increase in the production of the oilseed would be around 394.7 Mil MT if the US estimates come through, suggesting a rise of 13%, mainly thanks to the greater production in South America.
To account for this, it should be noted that the trident made up of Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay would increase the productive result of the group by 22.6%, highlighting an interannual increase of 138% for Paraguay, followed by Argentina and Brazil with increases of 21, 4 and 19.2% respectively. Finally, as a consequence of these production variations, the participation of the largest SB generators in South America would represent a larger portion of the world supply, going from 49% to 53% in the 2022/23 cycle.
Source: https://bcr.com.ar/
Photo: REUTERS/Stringer
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