Good progress of the 2021/22 maize harvest

Good progress of the 2021/22 maize harvest

The maize campaign officially started a month ago and has already progressed over 21% of the intended area. Meanwhile, exports of the SB complex in March focused on shipments of by-products.

Threshing in cornfields maintains a higher rate than what was recorded in the past cycle. Up to April 7^th, according to the data reported by the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, and Fisheries (MAGyP), the 2021/22 maize campaign has already been harvested by 21%, 8 percent above the previous campaign. At the same time, the early start of the current cycle should be highlighted, to later catch up to the average pace of the last 5 seasons. The current performance is slightly above the average of the harvests that go from 2016/17 to 2020/21 since this measure yields a result of 19.6%, almost 1.4 percent below the current records. This progress is equivalent to 2.1 Mil Ha of crops harvested to date, while a year ago there were crops equivalent to 1.2 Mil Ha, a difference of almost one million hectares between campaigns.

According to information from MAGyP at the national level, most of the regions maintain relatively similar progress to last year, although there is a considerable difference in the province of Córdoba. There, 17% of the crops have already been harvested, an increase of 12 points compared to the 5% that occurred in 2021. For its part, Santa Fe province progressed on 59% of the hectares destined for corn, when in the 2020/21 campaign had harvested 57% of said area. Likewise, it should be noted that, at the province level, Santa Fe registered a rise in the area sown with cereal of almost 10.5% between campaigns.

At the same time, with the last week’s frost, damages have been recorded in different regions of the country, presenting the possibility of production reductions, mainly in second-and late-season cereal crops, although SB were the crop that was relatively most affected. As reported by the Strategic Guide for Agriculture, the fear is that in the affected areas the frost will subtract kilos by cutting the filling of grains. In addition, it should be noted that the majority of the core region was affected by this climatic event.

Regarding SB threshing, according to preliminary data from the Strategic Guide for Agriculture (GEA) of the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR), this would exceed 1.4 million hectares in the core zone as a result of the absence of rains. Yields are a positive surprise in Pergamino city, where they average 4.5 MT/Ha when a month ago they were estimated at 3.3 MT/Ha, while the average total SB yield stands at 3.1 MT/Ha.

What were the final numbers for the 2020/21 soy campaign?

With the end of March, the 2020/21 soy campaign ends, where the international trade of Argentine by-products moved in different directions. According to preliminary data from NABSA, on the one hand, SB oil shipments abroad fell by almost half a million tons, going from 6 Mil MT in 2019/20 to 5.5 Mil MT in 2020/21, a dip equivalent to 9.8% between campaigns. However, this record implies the third-highest level of oil exports of this oilseed for our country, just above 5.4 Mil MT of the 2015/16 cycle and exceeding the average of the last 5 campaigns (5.2 Mil MT). However, it must be taken into account that as a consequence of the production drop that is estimated for the 2021/22 campaign, SBO exports for the cycle that has just started are estimated at 5 Mil MT, suggesting a further decrease of 500,000 tons. (-10%).

Meanwhile, exports of SBM/pellets/expellers presented an increase of 3.5 Mil MT to finally position themselves at 28.6 Mil MT, being above the 2019/20 campaign, while this record placed the result of the campaign passed just 300,000 tons below what was exported during the 2018/19 cycle when 28.9 Mil MT were exported. Likewise, with this figure, the average of the last 5 campaigns (28 Mil MT) is exceeded by almost 600,000 tons. However, as in the case of oil, exports of meal/pellets/expellers for the 2021/22 campaign are estimated at 24.9 Mil MT, which would indicate a fall of almost 3.7 Mil MT, being a similar drop to which it was registered between the 2018/19 and 2019/20 campaigns.

What happened in the international market?

In the international scenario, the information corresponding to the survey of sowing intentions of the United States and the surveys of grain stocks surprised a good part of the economic agents, since smaller areas for maize were reported, and higher in the case of SB. This trend is replicated in different parts of the world, given the strong shock that the input market had in recent weeks. With data on stocks that moved in a similar direction (higher SB stocks and lower maize availability), the reaction of foreign prices was a relative reduction in oilseed and its by-products, while cereal prices rose.

According to the survey carried out by the United States Ministry of Agriculture (USDA), an area equivalent to 36.2 Mil Ha in the US would be allocated to maize, falling 1.6 Mil Ha between campaigns (- 4.2%). At the same time, this record is the lowest since 2018 when 36 Mil Ha were planted in the US. In addition, the average of the last 5 campaigns is 36.6 Mil Ha, so the 2021/22 campaign would be positioned also below this record. This situation, added to the drop in North American inventories of the cereal, reduces the production threshold for the estimates of the next harvest.

On the other hand, SB saw an increase in the area estimate in the report released last week, predicting record production intentions for the next campaign. The sowing intention of the producers would be close to 36.8 Mil Ha for the production of the oilseed, which represents an increase of 3.5 Mil Ha between campaigns. In addition, not only is it above the average of the last 5 plantings, but it would also set a historical record for the US, being the largest area devoted to SB in history. At the same time, taking into account the good processing performance that is currently present in the US, this would suggest a greater supply capacity to its local market, while it would offset part of the production decreases in South America as of September.

Source: https://bcr.com.ar/

Photo: REUTERS/Stringer

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