Maize exports reach record levels

Maize exports reach record levels

Maize exports for the 2020/21 campaign broke the historical record. Nearing business cycle 21/22, maize has already accumulated the second-highest level of sales on record. SB recover prices in Rosario and Chicago.

Almost four months after the end of the campaign, 2020/21 maize exports accumulate 38.92 Mil MT. Consequently, this number already exceeds the volume registered for the entire 2018/19 commercial year, making the current campaign the new record-holder, with the highest recorded cargo declaration in local history.

Right from the beginning of the campaign, maize had already shown higher DJVE levels than the record 2018/19 campaign, but with last month’s sales the total declared volume was finally exceeded. This information is in line with the Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries (MAGyP), which increased its export estimates by more than one million tons, from 38.64 to 39.74 Mil MT for this season.

In view of the 21/22 campaign, maize continues to accumulate exports

So far this month, new-crop maize has traded around 1.4 Mil MT to foreign markets. This good amount of DJVE adds-on to the +5 Mil MT that were recorded in October; a monthly export level unseen since August 2019. To top it all off, there were no records of such high export levels just a month before the start of the business year.

With trading rhythm increasing, the coming season already accumulates more than 11.6 Mil MT of committed maize. This number is just under 1 Mil MT the 2019/20 business year, which currently holds the record for most DJVE before the beginning of the campaign. Furthermore, with this accumulated, the current campaign hops onto the podium as the third highest campaign with pre-declared trades in history, just behind 2019/20 and 2020/21, which just goes to show how maize has boomed in the recent campaigns. Clearly, the growing trend of early-corn trades is not surprising in light of the noticeable increase planting area: in just 5 years, maize planting surfaces have grown by 35%. Meanwhile, SB accumulates just 15,000 tons of DJVE up to now, awaiting stronger planting progress.

Regarding climate, according to the Strategic Guide for Agro (GEA), last week’s rains call to expect a substantial improvement in soil moisture. Before the rains, much of the main crop area showed normal to low moisture, close to drought levels in many areas. Consequently, these rains have been an enormous relief to the development of main grains crops. The improvement is expected to be felt most strongly in the northeast of Buenos Aires and the south of Santa Fe province, regions that were already suffering dwindling levels of soil moisture. Meanwhile, though the rains were felt with less intensity in Córdoba, the soils in this area already had a much better water profile than the rest of the producing regions.

SB is back on the positive ground, maize in due time

Prices recovered ground this last week, jumping more than 3% and thus approaching 358 USD/MT for SB. This way, prices for this time of year are at highs that have not been seen in a decade. Maize prices, on the other hand, remained stable at around 200 USD/MT.

In the local market, a wide range of open offers for maize could be seen during the week, both for the current campaign, as well as for positions of the next one. On the soy side, beans showed mostly nearby offers, with practically no deferred positions.

Meanwhile, investment funds have remained in a strictly buying position since February 2020, for soybean futures. However, this position has lost aggressiveness in the past few months, contributing to the strong drops seen in recent months. Nonetheless, the cut in positions seems to have slowed down and, due to what we’ve seen recently, it could bounce back in the coming days.

In recent weeks, SB sales from the United States have resumed with strength, particularly this last week. The Chinese and US presidents’ summit seems to have impacted deeply in trade rhythm, with four consecutive days announcing SB and byproduct sales from the North American powerhouse to the Asian giant.

In this context, the Chicago SB market showed increases of close to 4.5% during the week, closing on Thursday at 465 USD/MT. Maize also shoed improvement, closing Thursday at 225.6 USD/MT, rising nearly 1% in five days.

Source: https://bcr.com.ar/

Photo: REUTERS/Stringer

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