Climatic uncertainty and delayed shipments condition the soy and corn market
In the Up River Influence Zone, that is, the regions from where the grain that will be exported by the ports of Gran Rosario originates, early corn plantings were seriously affected by the lack of moisture in the edaphic profile caused by the drought that hit the area in September and October.
This situation will have a marked impact on the cereal arrivals at the Up River terminals in the first months of the harvest, March, and April. Taking as the cut-off date for early corn on October 31, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, 2.49 million hectares had been planted until that moment, 134,000 ha (-5%) below what was achieved in the previous season, and thus registering the lowest mark in four years. The situation in the rest of the country’s surface is different, concentrated in the south-central province of Buenos Aires, where the 882,000 ha. planted before 10/31 represent an advance of 69% compared to the campaign mark. previous.
Meanwhile, considering the entire national territory, the area planted with early maize rose 7% compared to last year, but this notorious disparity between regions may impact the share of shipments from the Greater Rosario area in the total. of dispatches.
Late maize presents a diametrically opposite picture. As of December 17, the planted hectares of this segment in the Up River Influence Zone totaled 2 million hectares, 4.3% ahead of last year’s mark for this height of the previous year, thus setting a historical record. Meanwhile, in the rest of the country, the introduction of late maize is 13% behind what happened last season, which is explained by the strong increase registered in early corn for that region.
Regarding the total area sown to date, both with early and late maize, in the Area of Influence of the Greater Rosario, the progress of the sowing work with respect to the total area of intention is 61%, four percentage points behind the mark of the previous year, while in absolute terms, the delay is 53,000 ha. It should be noted that this year, for the aforementioned region, the intention to plant maize marks a historical record, with a total of 7.3 million hectares, 4.4% more than what happened last season.
The situation with the SB planting is in line with what happens with maize. In the Gran Rosario region of influence, until 12/17, the proportion of hectares sown with respect to the total planting intention reached 73%, only two percentage points behind what happened in 2019. However, given that the Total area of intention to plant is well behind what happened last season, in absolute terms 9.3 million were planted on that date, the lowest mark since the 2001/02 season. Meanwhile, for the entire national territory, 12 million hectares have been planted, 71% of the total planned area, 2 percentage points behind what happened the previous season.
Union conflicts
Regarding the commercial progress of the current campaign, the delay in shipments in relation to the ship loading program due to various union conflicts that have been affecting export and industrialization activity in November and December stands out.
These measures affected operations in the oil factories and/or port terminals located in San Lorenzo, Rosario, Necochea and Bahia Blanca ports, except for some specific cases. In November, the force measures were sporadic and momentary but in December they lasted for several days, generating delays and significant stoppages in the loading of ships.
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As of December 16, 657,262 of corn have been dispatched, representing only 38% of the 1.7 Mt scheduled to dispatch throughout December. Then, the most noticeable delay is registered in soy by-products. In the case of SBM/SBHP, only 586,806 tons of the 2.3 Mt have been shipped, that is, only 25% of the total to be sent abroad before the end of the year; while in SBO, the load disposed of for the current month totals 614,504 t, of which only 14% was shipped, about 86,370 t.
If the look is broadened to the total number of ships scheduled to load grains and agroindustrial products derived from Argentine terminals, there are a total of 111 ships that as of December 17 are effectively waiting to load in the section that goes from Landfall to the moorings in port terminals. Of these, 13 are already moored in port, 38 en route to port terminals, and 60 at landfall. In total, these 111 ships must load 2.35 million tons of raw materials for an approximate value of US $ 1 billion.